NEW YORK CITY, New York: Citigroup has lowered its 12-month price forecasts for bitcoin and Ethereum, citing stalled progress on U.S. crypto legislation that was expected to support broader adoption and investment flows.
The Wall Street brokerage said delays in passing market-structure rules in the United States are reducing the likelihood of regulatory catalysts that could boost demand, particularly through exchange-traded funds and institutional participation.
Citigroup cut its bitcoin price target to US$112,000 from $143,000 and lowered its Ethereum forecast to $3,175 from $4,304.
"Regulatory catalysts will drive further adoption and flows, but the window of opportunity for U.S. legislation this year is narrowing," Citi strategist Alex Saunders said in a note on March 16.
Progress on the Clarity Act, a key piece of crypto market legislation, has slowed in the Senate due to disagreements over stablecoin rules and a tightening timeline for approval in 2026.
Citigroup said macroeconomic conditions could further influence prices. In a recession scenario, bitcoin could fall to $58,000 and Ethereum to $1,198. In a bullish case driven by stronger investor demand, bitcoin could reach $165,000 and Ethereum $4,488.
Bitcoin was last trading around $74,298.11, while Ethereum was at approximately $2,345.51 as of early Tuesday.
"ETH will be especially sensitive to user activity metrics, which have been weak recently, but stablecoin and tokenization trends may increase interest and usage," Citi added.
The outlook for legislation could also be affected by political developments. Analysts said the chances of passing a crypto bill could decline further if Democrats gain seats in Congress in the November midterm elections, as lawmakers remain divided on how to regulate digital assets.
To pass, the bill would require support from at least seven Senate Democrats. Some lawmakers have pushed for provisions preventing elected officials from profiting from crypto ventures, an issue that has gained attention following scrutiny of the Trump family's World Liberty Financial project.
Other lawmakers have also called for stronger anti-money laundering requirements. "Bitcoin is likely to range-trade, anticipating legislative news flow with (about) $70,000 an important level representing the pre-U.S. election price," Citi said.
